Biba Klomp
06-05-2008, 01:02 PM
CEPS European Neighbourhood Watch
Editorial by Michael Emerson:
"Time for a strategic bargain with Russia"
The recent past has been a miserable time for political relations between Russia and both the EU and US. While business has been booming on the back of Russia's huge gains from the sky-rocketing price of oil and gas, the foreign policy scene has been desolate. All parties are contributing to the present grumbling dissatisfactions: Russia's bullying foreign policy towards its smaller neighbours, the EU's inability to shape common positions towards Russia on either political or energy questions, the greatly damaged credibility of the present leadership of the United States, the row over missile defences etc.
But renewal of leadership is now on the horizon all round: in Russia with the installation of President Medvedev on 7 May, and with the EU and US due for their changes around the end of the year. Is it possible to sketch a scenario in which our new leaders might explore together the scope for not just a marginal improvement but rather a change of paradigm in Russian relations with both the EU and NATO?
Medvedev's Russia might be ready at least to explore such ideas. Post-Soviet Russia has now been through two episodes, first Yeltsin's revolutionary but chaotic dismantling of communism, and then Putin's consolidation of the Russian state internally and externally. Russia could be on the threshold of a third stage, to emerge maybe gradually after the change of presidency. The richer and self-confident Russia might seek practical inclusion in modern Europe, without seeking membership of the EU, with a more attractive re-branding its foreign policy image, and so secure objective advantages for its people, its economy and its political strategy. If so what could be the key ideas to get the process moving?
First, Russia could be invited to enter dialogue over the hypothesis of becoming a full member of NATO, leading to the working out of the necessarily huge and long preparatory agenda. One only has to read the communiqué of the NATO's April Bucharest summit with its long list of concerns to appreciate the potential for Russia's constructive contribution.
Second, the EU and Russia are due to open negotiations soon over a new and comprehensive treaty of strategic partnership. While Russia does not seek membership, there are possibilities for strategic action, for example visa-free travel, free trade in goods and services, and a concordat on rules for reciprocal investment in energy.
Third, the EU and US could with Russia purge of their nuisance the four 'simmering' (more than 'frozen') conflicts of the former Soviet space - Transnistria, Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Nagorno Karabakh, rather than see a drift towards war in the Caucasus.
Fourth, in parallel, Ukraine should be offered both a NATO membership action plan, and a perspective of EU membership. Russia has no objections to Ukraine's EU ambitions, and Putin has already hinted that his objections to its NATO membership would disso lve if Russia's relationship with NATO became adequate.
The process could be aided by new political mechanisms to give direction and coherence to its relations with both NATO and the EU. Putin only met NATO twice at summit level in eight years. But NATO and Russia could have something analogous to the regular EU-Russia summits. With the G8 about to go global, there could therefore be a new G4 for Euro-Atlantic relations, with summits bringing together the EU (with its new leadership), Russia, the US and NATO (with its secretary general).
Michael Emerson and George Dura
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) CEPS - Thinking Ahead for Europe Place du Congrès 1 B-1000 Brussels
Tel.: +32 2 229 39 11
Fax: +32 2 219 41 51
E-mail: neighbourhood@ceps.eu <mailto:neighbourhood@ceps.be>
Editorial by Michael Emerson:
"Time for a strategic bargain with Russia"
The recent past has been a miserable time for political relations between Russia and both the EU and US. While business has been booming on the back of Russia's huge gains from the sky-rocketing price of oil and gas, the foreign policy scene has been desolate. All parties are contributing to the present grumbling dissatisfactions: Russia's bullying foreign policy towards its smaller neighbours, the EU's inability to shape common positions towards Russia on either political or energy questions, the greatly damaged credibility of the present leadership of the United States, the row over missile defences etc.
But renewal of leadership is now on the horizon all round: in Russia with the installation of President Medvedev on 7 May, and with the EU and US due for their changes around the end of the year. Is it possible to sketch a scenario in which our new leaders might explore together the scope for not just a marginal improvement but rather a change of paradigm in Russian relations with both the EU and NATO?
Medvedev's Russia might be ready at least to explore such ideas. Post-Soviet Russia has now been through two episodes, first Yeltsin's revolutionary but chaotic dismantling of communism, and then Putin's consolidation of the Russian state internally and externally. Russia could be on the threshold of a third stage, to emerge maybe gradually after the change of presidency. The richer and self-confident Russia might seek practical inclusion in modern Europe, without seeking membership of the EU, with a more attractive re-branding its foreign policy image, and so secure objective advantages for its people, its economy and its political strategy. If so what could be the key ideas to get the process moving?
First, Russia could be invited to enter dialogue over the hypothesis of becoming a full member of NATO, leading to the working out of the necessarily huge and long preparatory agenda. One only has to read the communiqué of the NATO's April Bucharest summit with its long list of concerns to appreciate the potential for Russia's constructive contribution.
Second, the EU and Russia are due to open negotiations soon over a new and comprehensive treaty of strategic partnership. While Russia does not seek membership, there are possibilities for strategic action, for example visa-free travel, free trade in goods and services, and a concordat on rules for reciprocal investment in energy.
Third, the EU and US could with Russia purge of their nuisance the four 'simmering' (more than 'frozen') conflicts of the former Soviet space - Transnistria, Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Nagorno Karabakh, rather than see a drift towards war in the Caucasus.
Fourth, in parallel, Ukraine should be offered both a NATO membership action plan, and a perspective of EU membership. Russia has no objections to Ukraine's EU ambitions, and Putin has already hinted that his objections to its NATO membership would disso lve if Russia's relationship with NATO became adequate.
The process could be aided by new political mechanisms to give direction and coherence to its relations with both NATO and the EU. Putin only met NATO twice at summit level in eight years. But NATO and Russia could have something analogous to the regular EU-Russia summits. With the G8 about to go global, there could therefore be a new G4 for Euro-Atlantic relations, with summits bringing together the EU (with its new leadership), Russia, the US and NATO (with its secretary general).
Michael Emerson and George Dura
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) CEPS - Thinking Ahead for Europe Place du Congrès 1 B-1000 Brussels
Tel.: +32 2 229 39 11
Fax: +32 2 219 41 51
E-mail: neighbourhood@ceps.eu <mailto:neighbourhood@ceps.be>